NO GAPS GO UNTOUCHED! 1308’s FILLED - 26 May, 2011
With Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain – The Euro Zone – debt crisis and both the weakening German growth and Japanese exports raising concerns/confirmation that the world’s major economies have started to slow again – the markets have been rolling over, albeit slowly in the equities. Although, the S&P futures has been on a terror; a down side terror that is – the equities have fared well considering some of the other markets. Out of the last 17 trading days the S&P 500 has closed lower 10 times, higher 5 times and closed FLAT 2 times. This is not typical of the overall price action of the last 8 months – as the recent tendency has been trading/selling on news events. Over the last few weeks Mr TopStep has pointed out how the price action has changed and how easy it has become to do sell programs. We feel this has been a major factor of the most recent down move which is on pace for its 4th consecutive lower weekly close.
The day started with 2.8k SPMs and 375k ESMs traded in GLOBEX, a 4.50 handle gap down open of 1309.00 to 1309.50 (RTH and LOD) chopped around for the first 45 minutes of the day and then started to short cover into the buy stops helping facilitate the buy programs that took the SPM all the way up to 1320.50 mid day high. The next move was down to 1316.50 and then back up to 1320.00 for the afternoon chop. In the last hour the equities popped through the high, new HOD 1324.20 as AAPL traded up $6 on the day before pulling back. The cash imbalance showed $400M to sell, cash close was 1318.60 and settlement of 1316.60. Another day, another 8 handle sell off from the highs!
Mr. TopStep Video: Filled the Gap / on the fence – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5LgBFOgEGc
Mr. TopStep Charts “MIRROR IMAGES 1308′s LEDGE & GAP FILL” http://mrtopstep.com/category/market-commentary/charts/
For more information & interest on our MTS IM Service please view http://mrtopstep.com/imservice/ and signup info https://mrtopstep.com/amember/signup.php
__________________________________________________
OUR VIEW
Thursday? The S&P is up 5% on the year and down 3.1% on the month. Overbought and going into the summer months plus all the ongoing debt concerns in the EURO zone has the markets in turmoil again. In Asia 9 of 11 markets closed higher. In Europe 7 out of 10 markets are trading higher. The month end push to buy stock and commodities started yesterday and despite a late push up to 1324.20 the SPM got hit by a late day sell program pushing it back down to 1316 on the close. Mr. TopStep put out the 1322 to 1324 as it’s up side target early in the day. It is 5:30 am and the SPM is up 3 handles at 1319.50, crude is down .26 cents at 101.06 and the EC is up 110 at 141.80. The economic calender starts out this morning at 7:30 with the jobless claims number, Briefing.com forecast is for a rise to 409k from 400k. Also reporting at 7:30 is the revised first quarter gross domestic product report. Our view? We thought Tuesday would be up and we were off by one day. Overall we do not think the recent decline is over yet but we also think there could be some month end buyers around. The Traders almanac say that the Friday before Memorial Day tends to be “lackluster” with light trade. We suspect that will be correct. As for today we think it will be a 2 way street. As always keep an eye on the 10 handle rule and please use stops. Our range for the day is 1312 to 1326. See you on the IM!
For more information & interest on our MTS IM Service please view http://mrtopstep.com/imservice/ and signup info https://mrtopstep.com/amember/signup.php
__________________________________________________
FROM THE FLOOR / NEWS & OBSERVATIONS
TOP NOTCH ~ Some nice trades out of the gate as both futures opened on their lows today.
The S&P just missed testing that key price on today’s open of 1308.60 when an open saw a price area of the 1309.00-1309.50. That open low saw a move to test that globex high of 1313.75, followed by its key first test of the daily pivot objective at 1316.00, which felll just short, making a pit high of 1314.90, min high of 1315.00. A low of 1310.80 was seen, which was a retest of its pivotal price of 1311.30. This future has now made new highs at 1315.10, pit, 1315.25 mini, which once again inched closer to the daily pivot price. Key the action now. This future could now do what pivot levels do. Turn for another run higher with sights set on the value volume price of 1317.50 and short value price at 1318.50. However, a failure at the daily pivot could lead to trade back to this mornings opening range. That my friends would be a danger signal!!
The NasDaq did everything it said it would after opening at 2297.50-2299.00, its low, then rang to test its daily pivot of 2307.00 / long value price of 2308.00, stopping a pit high of 2309.00 / mini high of 2308.25. A rejection saw a low of 2302.00, which was huge!!! This held its settle price of 2301.75 from yesterday and now this future has pressed to new highs of 2313.00, looking to test its first resistance price of 2316.00, followed closely by its value volume level of 2317.50 from yesterday. Key to this future though saw its short value price on its high from yesterday at 2321.00. Very interesting!!!
The bonds are trading lightly and have been bouncing around. A open of 125.12 was seen and then on this mornings data, it spiked to a high of 125.17, followed with new lows at 125.03 in a matter of minutes. A bounce saw new highs at 125.20, which was its current week high, but failing the globex high of 125.23. Now this future has seen a move under its open price of 125.12, making a low of 125.06 and are under pressure to retest its current low of 125.03. However, a failure to make new lows and a move back above its opening price of 125.12, could lead to plenty of sideways action heading into the 5 year note auction at noon.
________________________________________________
HEARD ON THE MTS IM:
https://mrtopstep.com/amember/signup.php
http://mrtopstep.com/imservice/
eubie (06:11:39 AM): YEST RANGE 1312.00′s / 1322.20′s (1312′s GLOBEX TRADING / “NO GAP GOES UNTOUCHED” 1308′s on our MTS IM filled from 4/18 GLOBEX / 1303′s was the Tsunami HIGH / GLOBEX LOWS / Cover & Get LONG)
eubie (07:31:09 AM): we did just print 1308′s on durables “GAP FILLED”
george (07:33:02 AM): traders selling into the bond uptick on the data
eubie (07:41:34 AM): THE BIGGEST # ON THE BOARD IS #1303.70′s (which is matching FEB 1st Settle & MARCH 1st Settle& 3 THREE MONTH LOWS~ cover shorts / 3 mos lows without a bounce? / I was bearish; but not this bearish)
bob (08:44:45 AM): 1319 may come into play later in the week
eubie (08:55:49 AM): lets rally em for Haines / GOD BLESS
MTS DESK (09:24:57 AM): we have about 400k minis traded in the first 55 mins of trade and 2k SPMs the SPM sold off down to 1302.50 over night, made its low on the open / rallied and is coming back down or trying too (mid range) a lot of green on the boards here and a lot of sell stops below / very quiet down here
george (09:38:22 AM): come on keep pushing, I want 1322
eubie (09:41:24 AM): 10 HANDLE RULE into effect
MTS DESK (10:26:00 AM): buy stops all the way up to 1322 / 1324
eubie (11:43:38 AM): 1323’s
michael (12:56:04 PM): This is no man’s land, bulls need to convert 1319. Bears need to break daily pivot 1315.75.
eubie (01:18:29 PM): we see “00″ / 01 / “3″ rule and let go of the 1319′s
george (01:30:03 PM): cmon 1322′s
michael (01:35:36 PM): thx eubie, great call on the 08s
eubie (02:04:58 PM): need YEST HIGHs 1322.20′s to tickle the GAP
sam (02:08:03 PM): Thanks Eubie and Bob, 2K today is big for me
william (02:41:39 PM): see yall — that was fun — going to rollover and enjoy my ‘conquered the moment smoke’ first
_________________________________________________
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
http://mrtopstep.com/economic-calendar/
_________________________________________________
CONTRIBUTORS’ CORNER
“A QUICK LOOK AROUND”
Roger Volz / BGC
On watch to see if short term topping patterns will coincide with Nasdaq 100 futures reaching our first objective in the current down leg at 2284.00
Short term pattern alert in 10yr Note futures is a staggered double top against resistance at 123’13-123’10 against chart resistances at 123’14 and 123’19 represents the first for the run . Short term reversal lines are lifted to 122’21 and 122’11
The short term pattern alert in US 10 yr Yield chart is a triple bottom at 3.089%-3.09%-3.091% against the 233-day SMA at 3.065%. First resistance to firm is 3.156%; next to confirm is 3.191% and falling.
10 Year Note Futures Daily Chart
US 10 Yr Yields Daily Chart
SP 500 Futures Daily working technical model…..lower lows lower highs leaves bulls in search for start of higher low base. Our previous momentum loss line at the 34-day SMA at 1332.30 now becomes the top of the immediate range at the 34-day SMA. Charts would move into retest of lows mode with retake of the next downside break line at 1309.80. Close below this line exposes an air pocket to 1297.50 where the next ledge of grouped support lay.
_________________________________________________
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The day started with 2.8k SPMs and 375k ESMs traded in GLOBEX, a 4.50 handle gap down open of 1309.00 to 1309.50 (RTH and LOD) chopped around for the first 45 minutes of the day and then started to short cover into the buy stops helping facilitate the buy programs that took the SPM all the way up to 1320.50 mid day high. The next move was down to 1316.50 and then back up to 1320.00 for the afternoon chop. In the last hour the equities popped through the high, new HOD 1324.20 as AAPL traded up $6 on the day before pulling back. The cash imbalance showed $400M to sell, cash close was 1318.60 and settlement of 1316.60. Another day, another 8 handle sell off from the highs!
Mr. TopStep Video: Filled the Gap / on the fence – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5LgBFOgEGc
Mr. TopStep Charts “MIRROR IMAGES 1308′s LEDGE & GAP FILL” http://mrtopstep.com/category/market-commentary/charts/
For more information & interest on our MTS IM Service please view http://mrtopstep.com/imservice/ and signup info https://mrtopstep.com/amember/signup.php
__________________________________________________
OUR VIEW
Thursday? The S&P is up 5% on the year and down 3.1% on the month. Overbought and going into the summer months plus all the ongoing debt concerns in the EURO zone has the markets in turmoil again. In Asia 9 of 11 markets closed higher. In Europe 7 out of 10 markets are trading higher. The month end push to buy stock and commodities started yesterday and despite a late push up to 1324.20 the SPM got hit by a late day sell program pushing it back down to 1316 on the close. Mr. TopStep put out the 1322 to 1324 as it’s up side target early in the day. It is 5:30 am and the SPM is up 3 handles at 1319.50, crude is down .26 cents at 101.06 and the EC is up 110 at 141.80. The economic calender starts out this morning at 7:30 with the jobless claims number, Briefing.com forecast is for a rise to 409k from 400k. Also reporting at 7:30 is the revised first quarter gross domestic product report. Our view? We thought Tuesday would be up and we were off by one day. Overall we do not think the recent decline is over yet but we also think there could be some month end buyers around. The Traders almanac say that the Friday before Memorial Day tends to be “lackluster” with light trade. We suspect that will be correct. As for today we think it will be a 2 way street. As always keep an eye on the 10 handle rule and please use stops. Our range for the day is 1312 to 1326. See you on the IM!
For more information & interest on our MTS IM Service please view http://mrtopstep.com/imservice/ and signup info https://mrtopstep.com/amember/signup.php
__________________________________________________
FROM THE FLOOR / NEWS & OBSERVATIONS
TOP NOTCH ~ Some nice trades out of the gate as both futures opened on their lows today.
The S&P just missed testing that key price on today’s open of 1308.60 when an open saw a price area of the 1309.00-1309.50. That open low saw a move to test that globex high of 1313.75, followed by its key first test of the daily pivot objective at 1316.00, which felll just short, making a pit high of 1314.90, min high of 1315.00. A low of 1310.80 was seen, which was a retest of its pivotal price of 1311.30. This future has now made new highs at 1315.10, pit, 1315.25 mini, which once again inched closer to the daily pivot price. Key the action now. This future could now do what pivot levels do. Turn for another run higher with sights set on the value volume price of 1317.50 and short value price at 1318.50. However, a failure at the daily pivot could lead to trade back to this mornings opening range. That my friends would be a danger signal!!
The NasDaq did everything it said it would after opening at 2297.50-2299.00, its low, then rang to test its daily pivot of 2307.00 / long value price of 2308.00, stopping a pit high of 2309.00 / mini high of 2308.25. A rejection saw a low of 2302.00, which was huge!!! This held its settle price of 2301.75 from yesterday and now this future has pressed to new highs of 2313.00, looking to test its first resistance price of 2316.00, followed closely by its value volume level of 2317.50 from yesterday. Key to this future though saw its short value price on its high from yesterday at 2321.00. Very interesting!!!
The bonds are trading lightly and have been bouncing around. A open of 125.12 was seen and then on this mornings data, it spiked to a high of 125.17, followed with new lows at 125.03 in a matter of minutes. A bounce saw new highs at 125.20, which was its current week high, but failing the globex high of 125.23. Now this future has seen a move under its open price of 125.12, making a low of 125.06 and are under pressure to retest its current low of 125.03. However, a failure to make new lows and a move back above its opening price of 125.12, could lead to plenty of sideways action heading into the 5 year note auction at noon.
________________________________________________
HEARD ON THE MTS IM:
https://mrtopstep.com/amember/signup.php
http://mrtopstep.com/imservice/
eubie (06:11:39 AM): YEST RANGE 1312.00′s / 1322.20′s (1312′s GLOBEX TRADING / “NO GAP GOES UNTOUCHED” 1308′s on our MTS IM filled from 4/18 GLOBEX / 1303′s was the Tsunami HIGH / GLOBEX LOWS / Cover & Get LONG)
eubie (07:31:09 AM): we did just print 1308′s on durables “GAP FILLED”
george (07:33:02 AM): traders selling into the bond uptick on the data
eubie (07:41:34 AM): THE BIGGEST # ON THE BOARD IS #1303.70′s (which is matching FEB 1st Settle & MARCH 1st Settle& 3 THREE MONTH LOWS~ cover shorts / 3 mos lows without a bounce? / I was bearish; but not this bearish)
bob (08:44:45 AM): 1319 may come into play later in the week
eubie (08:55:49 AM): lets rally em for Haines / GOD BLESS
MTS DESK (09:24:57 AM): we have about 400k minis traded in the first 55 mins of trade and 2k SPMs the SPM sold off down to 1302.50 over night, made its low on the open / rallied and is coming back down or trying too (mid range) a lot of green on the boards here and a lot of sell stops below / very quiet down here
george (09:38:22 AM): come on keep pushing, I want 1322
eubie (09:41:24 AM): 10 HANDLE RULE into effect
MTS DESK (10:26:00 AM): buy stops all the way up to 1322 / 1324
eubie (11:43:38 AM): 1323’s
michael (12:56:04 PM): This is no man’s land, bulls need to convert 1319. Bears need to break daily pivot 1315.75.
eubie (01:18:29 PM): we see “00″ / 01 / “3″ rule and let go of the 1319′s
george (01:30:03 PM): cmon 1322′s
michael (01:35:36 PM): thx eubie, great call on the 08s
eubie (02:04:58 PM): need YEST HIGHs 1322.20′s to tickle the GAP
sam (02:08:03 PM): Thanks Eubie and Bob, 2K today is big for me
william (02:41:39 PM): see yall — that was fun — going to rollover and enjoy my ‘conquered the moment smoke’ first
_________________________________________________
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
http://mrtopstep.com/economic-calendar/
_________________________________________________
CONTRIBUTORS’ CORNER
“A QUICK LOOK AROUND”
Roger Volz / BGC
On watch to see if short term topping patterns will coincide with Nasdaq 100 futures reaching our first objective in the current down leg at 2284.00
Short term pattern alert in 10yr Note futures is a staggered double top against resistance at 123’13-123’10 against chart resistances at 123’14 and 123’19 represents the first for the run . Short term reversal lines are lifted to 122’21 and 122’11
The short term pattern alert in US 10 yr Yield chart is a triple bottom at 3.089%-3.09%-3.091% against the 233-day SMA at 3.065%. First resistance to firm is 3.156%; next to confirm is 3.191% and falling.
10 Year Note Futures Daily Chart
US 10 Yr Yields Daily Chart
SP 500 Futures Daily working technical model…..lower lows lower highs leaves bulls in search for start of higher low base. Our previous momentum loss line at the 34-day SMA at 1332.30 now becomes the top of the immediate range at the 34-day SMA. Charts would move into retest of lows mode with retake of the next downside break line at 1309.80. Close below this line exposes an air pocket to 1297.50 where the next ledge of grouped support lay.
_________________________________________________
Sign up for our free mailing list at http://mrtopstep.com/ for full report.
Follow us on twitter @MrTopStep http://twitter.com/mrtopstep
